Papers
NBER2026

The Human Capital Production Function: New Estimates and Implications for Labor Supply and Taxes

Han Gao, Michael P. Keane, Kaja Kierulf, Alan Woodland

Source versions
1
Latest record
2026-05-25
Primary source
NBER
TL;DR

This paper estimates a learning-by-doing human-capital production function in which hours affect both current productivity and future human capital.

NBERLaborPublic FinanceStructuralPSIDPDF link
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Sources
NBER
Fields
LaborPublic Finance
Methods and data
StructuralPSID
Abstract

This paper estimates a learning-by-doing human-capital production function in which hours affect both current productivity and future human capital. We show that the standard Ben-Porath specification is weakly identified: its objective function is nearly flat along a ridge in parameter space, undermining conventional inference. We develop a flexible sieve alternative that is well-identified, and estimate a concave hours technology using PSID data. Embedding this technology in a life-cycle model, we find very small prime-age labor-supply responses to temporary wage shocks. Despite these low elasticities, optimal labor-income taxes are flat because they distort both current labor supply and future human-capital accumulation.

Source versions
NBER2026-05-25
Working Paper w35238
w35238
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